Stanley Cup Final Predictions

Well here it is; Chicago Vs. Philadelphia for the Cup. Dave says that Chicago's offense will be too much for Philly to contain and that their goaltender, Antti Niemi, will effectively shut down the Flyers offensive attack. Mike says while both teams are pretty awesome and evenly balanced (young stars up front, a solid defensive corps, and a questionable goaltending scenario) he thinks that the Flyers' overall commitment to toughness puts them over the top; as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards can be just as dangerous as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.

Dave says: Blackhawks in four.
Mike says: Flyers in six.

Season Review: Montreal Canadiens

Well, now that we're gearing toward the Stanley Cup Finals, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the runner-ups in the Eastern Conference Finals: The Montreal Canadiens.

Season expectations: Though the diehard Montreal faithful would have you believe they would be instant Cup contenders, many people were somewhat skeptical about how their team would perform. The greatest sources of derision came from the signing of Mike Cammalleri (who's 5'9") to play with Brian Gionta (5'7") and Scott Gomez (who's billed at 5'11"... maybe on skates...) to form their first line. However, the team from top to bottom had players that were either of the fleet, small, skilled mold or the big, phyiscal, strong mode; not to mention two young and very talented goaltenders. Jacques Martin was acquired after three losing seasons for the Florida Panthers to instill a defensive system for the team to use and with any luck, Montreal could go back to being Les Glorieux all over again.

My prediction: I predicted that Montreal would finish second in the Northeast Division and fifth overall in the Eastern Conference.

The truth: The team finished fourth and eighth respectively. After two intense series that saw them eliminate the President's Trophy Washington Capitals and the defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins, the team was eliminated from the Eastern Conference Finals in five games by the Philadelphia Flyers.

What went right?: Jaroslav Halak, Jaroslav Halak, Jaroslav Halak. That had to be printed three times. When the team looked like shark fodder, Halak pulled through with some brilliant performances. Other than that, Tomas Plekanec lead the team in points during the regular season, Cammelleri delivered during the playoffs. Andrei Markov was kicking ass before going down with injury while the team's first line were not dynamic offensively, but played sound two-way hockey. Glen Metropolit may not be a household name, but he did very well in his role with the Habs (and should be re-signed, IMO.) The brightest spot on the horizon? That would be PK Subban; who put up 8 points in 14 playoff games and finished with a +2, which was a team best in the playoffs.

What went wrong?: +2 is someone's best on the team during the playoffs. When Halak had rough outings (see, Game 2 of this past series) the Canadiens became ineffective. They managed to have enough gusto to beat out two excellent teams, but when it came time to play a sixth-seeded team they looked confused and lost. Overall, Philadelphia managed to use their intimidation factor to their advantage and the end result was them dominating the Habs.

So what's next?: This doesn't look like an easy off-season for the Habs. They have $45.7M locked up in salaries and need to qualify two goaltenders (one of which may bolt to Europe or hold out for more money), a slew of young forwards seeking raises, and risk losing their leading scorer to free agency. It's not impossible considering that they can take all their returning defensemen, plus Subban, and make that work but it won't be simple either. It should be interesting to see what happens starting July.

Season Review: San Jose Sharks

Well, now that we're gearing toward the Stanley Cup Finals, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the runner-ups in the Western Conference Finals: The San Jose Sharks.

Season expectations: While we here were somewhat skeptical of their supremacy, many hockey analysts felt this was going to be a strong year for the Sharks. And rightfully so, as the team managed to acquired Dany Heatley from the Ottawa Senators to round out their first scoring line. With a solid group of internally-developed scoring forwads like Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski, and Ryan Clowe to help out Patrick Marleau and Jumbo Joe Thornton, the team had a great group of scoring forwards before you even consider the rest of this strong and formidable team. While they had the reputation of being choke artists come playoff time, the Sharks were expected to go deep into the playoffs.

My prediction: I figured they would finish second in the Pacific Division and sixth overall in the Western Conference.

The truth: They did far better, finishing first in both for the second straight season. They made it to the Western Conference Finals, where they were swept by the Chicago Blackhawks. They beat the Blackhawks in the standings by one point during the regular season.

What went right?: During the regular season, the Marleau-Thornton-Heatley unit averaged a point-per-game. To top it off, Dan Boyle, Pavelski and Clowe broke the 50 point barrier while Setoguchi put up 36 points in 70 games. Pavelski deserves a special mention because he was also the Sharks most dominant performer come playoff time and stepped up in a way that some of his teammates couldn't. Evgeni Nabokov did well for the team, putting up a 44-16-10 record in 71 appearances while Tomas Greiss posted up a 2.69 GAA and .912 save percentage in 16 appearances. The brightest spot for the team, however, was the fact that everyone on the squad committed to playing excellent two-way hockey. Only six players finished with a minus rating for the regular season and out of those six, four of those players didn't play in more than 9 games while Niklas Wallin's rating was affected by his tenure during the Carolina Hurricanes (he finished with an even rating during his time with the Sharks.)

What went wrong?: Come playoff time, the team's first line began to dissipate, and while they were all dominant performers come playoff time, none of them managed to break the point-per-game average that they had during the regular season and each ended up as minus players. Joe Thornton's play was more exceptional in terms of falling off, putting up 12 points to go with a -11 rating in 15 games during their post-season run. Also, like most other teams who rely on their goaltenders heavily during the regular season, Nabokov lost some of his effectiveness come playoff time; begging the question as to why Greiss hasn't received more playing time despite being competent enough to goaltend in the NHL. And while it might not be an "official" reason to losing, one wonders how trading away enforcer Jody Shelly affected how other teams played against them. He was skating a regular shift for them and defending them; since he wasn't replaced that may have allowed the intimidation factor to set in.

So what's next?: Despite their salary commitments, the Sharks are in excellent shape going into next season, having $35.7M committed to salaries next season. However, Pavelski and Setoguchi need to be qualified while Marleau, Rob Blake, and Nabokov are the more notable UFAs going onto the open market, not to mention the fact that Manny Malhotra's due for a raise considering his strong season. There's a lot of good components that are locked down though, so hopefully they can lock down their key players or get solid reinforcements should the UFAs decide to go elsewhere.

Season Review: Boston Bruins

(Sorry we didn't get the Conference Final predictions in time; Dave had his opening night at the Stout Saturday night and we partied it up. That said, we're just going to say Chicago and Philadelphia in six.)

Well, now that we're in the conference finals of the playoffs, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the last team to be eliminated from the Eastern Conference Semifinals: The Boston Bruins.

Season expectations: This squad looked like a Cup contender last season when they were upset by the Carolina Hurricanes. Things didn't fare much better in the off-season, when Phil Kessel and the team couldn't come to terms, leaving him to be dealt to the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second overall pick in the 2010 draft. Nevertheless, the team was still exciting and pretty dynamic at all positions, featuring captain Zdeno Chara patrolling the blueline with Dennis Wideman; a savvy group of forwards that feature David Krejeci, Marc Savard, Patrice Bergeron, and Milan Lucic; and the Vezina-trophy winning Tim Thomas with blue-chip prospect Tuukka Rask. Things figured to be strong for Boston and there wouldn't have been much to stop them... save injuries.

My prediction: I figured the Bruins would be first in the Northeast Division and first overall in the Eastern Conference.

The truth: They managed to be third in the division and sixth overall in the conference. They made it to the conference semifinals, where they lost hold of a 3-0 series lead to lose the Philadelphia Flyers in seven games.

What went right?: Though the team lost a lot of scoring with Kessel going to the Leafs and with Marc Savard going down to injury, the team still managed to play an up-tempo, defensive style of hockey that had everyone scoring by committee. Bergeron, Krejeci, Chara, and Mark Recchi lead the team in scoring while six other players managed to break 30 points (Blake Wheeler almost broke 40.) Also worth noting was the move to sign Miro Satan midway through the season, where he went on to light it up during the opening round of the playoffs. When Thomas faltered, Rask was up to task, putting up a 22-12-5 record with a 1.97 GAA and a .931 save percentage. Toughness was not lacking, as Shawn Thornton did the job that Chara was too valuable to do (but when pushed, Chara didn't back away either.) All and all, the team played within their abilities and within coach Claude Jullien's system, which is what got them to the playoffs.

What went wrong?: Much like the Coyotes, when the Bruins lost a key component, their season was done. Once David Krejeci went down with injury, the Flyers found their game, their goaltender, and did what many said would have been impossible. One wonders how a completely healthy Savard would have changed things, though, because his earlier concussion problems were likely still a concern even when he got back into the game.

So what's next?: The team has $46.140M committed to salaries next season and will have to shore up their depth defenders, a scoring forward or two, and their role players (read: agitators and enforcers). While some faces may change, the group as a whole still has the ingredients to remain competitive going into next season.

Season Review: Pittsburgh Penguins

Well, mow we're gearing toward the conference finals of the playoffs, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the first team to be eliminated from the Eastern Conference Semifinals: The Pittsburgh Penguins.

Season expectations: The defending Stanley Cup Champions, this team was finally starting to see it's young talent show why they were the best in the league. From worst to first, the team boasted young stars like Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal, Evgeni Malkin, and of course, Sidney Crosby. Now, GM Ray Shero wasn't able to keep the entire band together, as Miro Satan and Rob Scuderi ended up finding work elsewhere, but players like Mike Rupp and Brent Johnson were brought in to complement an already strong roster that was the best in the league for 2009. While parity is the new word in the NHL, many believed Pittsburgh could repeat as the first back-to-back champions in the salary-cap era NHL.

My prediction: I predicted they would finish second in the Atlantic Division and fourth overall in the Eastern Conference.

The truth: I was on the money. They were eliminated in an exciting seven game series in the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the surprising Montreal Canadiens

What went right?: Crosby set himself apart from the pack, putting up over 50 goals and 50 assists each and probably would have won the Art Ross trophy if it weren't for that pesky Hendrik Sedin. Malkin wasn't nearly as dominant, but still averaged over a point per game in 67 games played while Sergei Gonchar managed to put up 50 points. Rupp and the controversial Matt Cooke managed to supply the team with toughness that could skate the regular shift and each broke the century mark in PIM. Pittsburgh's secondary scoring was bountiful and the depth lines were excellent in scoring by committee while paying fine attention to the details of sound two-way hockey. Neither Fleury or Johnson were particulary dominant in the crease, but both managed to put up respectable numbers for a club that has two of the leagues best forwards skating for them.

What went wrong?: Besides this being Jaroslav Halak's year? While Crosby was a dominant playoff performer, he was not the entire team and was the only player who could still keep up the production that was consistent with his regular season. Malkin performed admirably, but started to quiet down in the offensive department as the postseason went on (Jordan Staal may not have been as prolific himself, but he was a very hard competitor in his role as a third-line center; he'd be higher on the depth chart in any other organization.) Fleury in particular managed to struggle as the postseason progressed, finishing with a .891 save percentage that was absolutely affected by his performance in Game 7, which he was pulled halfway through for Johnson.

So what's next?: Expect some drastic changes. Now that the honeymoon is over, the team has $45.108M committed in salaries next season. That wouldn't be so bad if they didn't have to go shopping for two or three scoring wingers and a defense corp that's only seeing three players return for certain. The rumors of Evgeni Malkin being traded are starting to heat up and with a lot of talented players available at the draft, it's not inconceivable to think that a weaker team would jettison some NHL ready players, prospects, and high draft picks for a center that has the ability to turn the game around. Of course, Pittsburgh doesn't have to make those types of moves, but that's going to leave a big hole between the crease and the red line; a hole that the two current goaltenders could do an average job (at best) of containing.

Season Review: Vancouver Canucks

Well, mow we're gearing toward the conference finals of the playoffs, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the last team to be eliminated from the Western Conference Semifinals: The Vancouver Canucks.

Season expectations: When you have the Sedin twins and one of the greatest goaltenders in Roberto Luongo; the expectations are pretty high. Mikael Samuelsson was brought on to provide some scoring while Ryan Kesler and Alexandre Burrows were poised to take larger roles with the team. Longtime defender Mattias Ohlund left during the off-season but with the emergence of Kevin Bieska and the acquisition of Christian Ehrhoff, the team looked to have a solid core of defenders. Though the team was noted for their two-way ability, they had toughness built throughout the roster and looked like they were one of the most complete teams to be put on the ice. Missing the playoffs would be unacceptable; these guys had the ingredients to be cup contenders.

My prediction: I predicted the team would be first in the Pacific Division and first overall in the Western Conference.

The truth: The team finished atop of the division and third overall in the conference. They made it to the Western Conference Semifinals where they were eliminated by the Chicago Blackhawks in six games.

What went right?: In case you didn't hear, Hendrik Sedin won the Art Ross Trophy as the league's top point-scorer with 112 points and this was with his brother Daniel out of the lineup for 19 games. Alexandre Burrows had a breakout season and lead the Canucks with goals scored with 35. Secondary scoring was prolific too, as Kesler put up 75 points and both Samuelsson and Mason Raymond put up 53 points; defenders Erhoff and Alexander Edler each broke the 40 point barrier for their team. There was no lack of toughness either, as five players broke 100 PIM for the season, with Darcy Hordichuk leading the way with 142. On the blue line, Sami Salo, Willie Mitchell, and the oft-disciplined Shane O'Brien managed to keep things tidy in their zone, being the players who broke +10 while not simultaneously being one of the top scorers for the club. Luongo was his talented self during the regular season (even winning a gold medal in the Olympics) while Andrew Raycroft enjoyed a rebound season as a backup, putting up a 9-5-1 record with a .911 save percentage in 21 appearances.

What went wrong?: I hate to put it all on one person, but Luongo's goaltending for the entire postseason was absolutely brutal. He'll finish the postseason with a GAA over 3.00 and a save percentage that's sub .900. When that's the numbers that your starting goaltender is putting up and the coach decides not to put in the backup, then your team's going to have a difficult time scoring when they're constantly retrieving the puck from their own net. In fairness though, the team was very sloppy for most (if not all) of Game six against the Blackhawks, goal scoring dried up as the postseason progressed, and we won't mention Sami Salo's injury to the hairy gumdrops.

So what's next?: The team has $45M committed to salaries next season. From that, they'll need to qualify Cory Schneider, lock up their RFAs (who, at worst, can play a depth role competently for the Canucks) and perhaps look for a scorer who can provide some of the production the team had hoped they would have seen from Pavol Demitra. They still have a complete hockey team, so there's no reason to suspect they won't be back and contending next season.

Season Review: Detroit Red Wings

(Sorry, been lax with the whole "Random Thoughts" posts, haven't gotten to watch nearly the amount of hockey as we did during the quarterfinals.)

Well, mow we're gearing toward the conference finals of the playoffs, we will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the first team to be eliminated from the Western Conference Semifinals: The Detroit Red Wings.

Season expectations: While hockey fans and experts expected the Red Wings to be competitive, most knew there would be a slight step back; even Mike Babcock used to the term "rebuilding" when describing what the team's season would be like. Gone were goal scorers such as Mikael Samuelsson and Jiri Hudler and in came players like Todd Bertuzzi and Jason Williams. Andreas Lilja was going to start the season in the infirmary, giving Jonathan Ericsson the opportunity to get his feet wet in an NHL gig. Ty Conklin didn't return and with no other options in goal aside from Chris Osgood, the team promoted Jimmy Howard up from the minors to platoon with Osgood in hopes of giving Detroit their first homegrown goaltender since... well, Osgood. Though the scoring wasn't predicted to be as abundant, the Wings were still regarded as one of the top teams in the league going into the season.

My prediction: I predicted that the Red Wings would finish second in the Central Division and fourth overall in the Western Conference.

The truth: The Wings finished second in the division and fifth overall in the conference (pretty damn close.) They made it to the Western Conference Semifinals, where they were eliminated by the San Jose Sharks in five games.

What went right?: Howard took huge steps and ultimately the starting job over as he managed to carve out a 37-15-10 record with a .924 save percentage. The team's top defenders, Niklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski, were their usual talented selves, posting 49 and 42 points respectively to go along with +22 and +23 ratings, respectively. Behind the bench, Mike Babcock did what he could to keep a team that saw Bertuzzi and Brad Stuart as the only players to dress in 82 games competitive while Ken Holland made an intriguing waiver wire pickup with Drew Miller, giving the team a sound defensive forward to fortify their fourth line. Pavel Datsyuk and Bertuzzi managed to score some timely goals for the Wings while Valtteri Filppula was on pace to have a career season if it weren't for all the pesky injuries. What happened to work best for the Wings was the fact that they demonstrated the perseverance that makes them legendary, going from being 10th overall in the conference in January to fifth overall by April.

What went wrong?: Simply stated, after three straight postseasons of reaching the Western Conference Finals or better, the team ran out of gas after dealing with a season where injuries and a lack of depth (in comparison to those previous seasons) forced them to be behind the ball many a times. The team had to dig down deep to make it to the playoffs and had to do the same again to eliminate the Coyotes from the playoffs in seven games. By the time they reached a healthy and effective San Jose squad, the team had overexerted themselves and San Jose took full advantage of it.

So what's next?: When most teams say it's a rebuild season, that usually means a Top-Five draft pick. In the Red Wings' case, it means making the 5th seed of the playoffs. They might be out for this season, but the team's still got it. Most of the key players are locked up for next season, leaving Lidstrom and Tomas Holmstrom as two of the more key components that need to be retained if they don't opt for retirement. Hudler will also be returning next season and will provide the Wings with some of that scoring they were missing during this season. With a longer than expected summer, the team can go to their respective homes, get some good rest and recovery time in with their families, and return to displaying the type of dominance they're known for during the 2010-11 season.

Oh and if the team happens to sign Zenon Konopka during the off-season to help them with a consummate fourth-line center (read: a guy who wins fights and faceoffs) then this blogger's getting a Wings tattoo. Honest.

Season Review: Washington Capitals

Well, as we've reached the semi-finals of the playoffs, I will be reviewing the seasons of teams as they're eliminated from the playoffs. Obviously, the last team reviewed will be the one that wins the Cup.

Now the final team to be eliminated from the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: The Washington Capitals.

Season expectations: Any team with Alexander Ovechkin is going to have high expectations, rightfully or wrongly. However, this season marked one that was supposed to bring the noise for them. While Alexander Semin and Niklas Backstrom are just ever-improving, Mike Green broke out in a huge way last season while Simeyon Varlamov seemed poised to breakout as the new starting goaltender for Washington. Though in a conference with the champion Pittsburgh Penguins and other favorites such as the Boston Bruins or Philadelphia Flyers, the Capitals figured to give the rest of the league a run for their money and finally spell an end to their playoff failures.

My prediction: I predicted they would end up first in the Southeast Division and third overall in the Eastern Conference.

The truth: They won the President's Trophy as the best team during the regular season. The hockey world was stunned, however, when the team was eliminated in seven games to the 8th-seeded Montreal Canadiens.

What went right?: Well, any team with a first line of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin is going to do well regardless of what the rest of the team looks like. Green did well and still managed to break a point-per-game average as a defensemen. Secondary scoring was absolutely abundant with three other players breaking the 50 point barrier and two more breaking the 40 point barrier (and Eric Fehr ended up with 39.) The shutdown defenders on this team did very well and the efforts of Jose Theodore, Varlamov, and Michal Neuwirth provided the team with solid yet semi-inconsistent goaltending (though much of that was likely attributed to injuries and unfortunate circumstances) to get the team to finish best in the league. They seemed to lack an enforcer but with John Erskine and Jasom Chimera (who was traded for former captain Chris Clark) in the lineup, the team had enough sandpaper to get by.

What went wrong?: One could say these guys ran into a wall (and the wall's name was Jaroslav Halak) but there were a legitimate amount of things that spelled the end of the Capitals. The first, and loudest, is the fact that the team doesn't necessarily play the "right" style of hockey. This was a criticism espoused initially by Steve Yzerman (when asked as to why he left Mike Green off of the Canadian Olympic roster) and then echoed by R.J. Umberger (whom many viewed as sour grapes considering the abysmal performance of his team, the Columbus Blue Jackets.) Though as talented as they are, the team managed to be stymied in the offensive zone yet couldn't find an answer in the defensive zone despite not having as much of a challenge; so there has to be some level of truth to that assessment. Also, have they been spoiled by playing in a very weak division? One has to wonder what effects that has had on both their stats and preparation for the second season, which is worlds different from the first.

So what's next?: GM George McPhee is going to have an incredible task to deal with during the off-season in having to get Backstrom locked down with a new contract. The team will have some wiggle room in the salary cap department but will still need to lock up key RFAs such as Neuwirth and Tomas Fleischmann. Also, now is the time for coach Bruce Boudreau to start to figure out how he's going ensure that the team's offensive prowess doesn't remain a defensive liability; especially come playoff time. They still have a hell of a team, though, so they don't need to blow it up to make it work.